IADIS International Journal on Computer Science and Information Systems

Published by IADIS (International Association for Development of the Information Society) • ISSN (Online): 1646-3692 • ISSN (Print): 1646-3692
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Predicting Consumer Goods Prices – the Short-, Medium- and Long-term Perspective

Anne Falkenberg *
Benjamin Buchwitz *
* 1Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Auf der Schanz 49, 85049 Ingolstadt, Bavaria, Germany. 2South Westphalia University of Applied Sciences. Lindenstraße 53, 59872 Meschede, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany (Portugal)
* 1Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt, Auf der Schanz 49, 85049 Ingolstadt, Bavaria, Germany. 2South Westphalia University of Applied Sciences. Lindenstraße 53, 59872 Meschede, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany (Portugal)

Abstract

The large number of available prices gave rise to price comparison sites that yet lack recommendation services to support their customers in scheduling buying decisions. Using a large data set with 1.46 million daily minimum price observations for four product categories of e lectronic consumer goods, we outline reasons for the slow adoption of recommendation services, evaluate 6.56 billion price forecasts and show that forecasted product prices can be used to build recommendation services to advise customers on their purchase time decision. We compare 16 different methods that can act as the core of price prediction services and give detailed insights on performance as well as advice on model selection for short-, medium and long-term forecasting horizons, outline differences b y category and advocate the transition towards prescriptive price analytics services.

Keywords

Price Forecasting Big Data e-Commerce Price Time Series Predictive Analytics
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Declarations & Ethics

Funding: This research received academic dissemination support through ESCAP / JournalsHub publishing programs.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no competing financial or institutional interests.
Peer Review: Double-blind peer reviewed by international subject specialists.
License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
How to Cite This Article
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Falkenberg, et al. (2020). Predicting Consumer Goods Prices – the Short-, Medium- and Long-term Perspective. IADIS International Journal on Computer Science and Information Systems, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.33965/ijcsis_2020_v15i2_06
Falkenberg, et al. "Predicting Consumer Goods Prices – the Short-, Medium- and Long-term Perspective." IADIS International Journal on Computer Science and Information Systems, vol. 15, no. 2, 2020. https://doi.org/10.33965/ijcsis_2020_v15i2_06
Falkenberg, et al. "Predicting Consumer Goods Prices – the Short-, Medium- and Long-term Perspective." IADIS International Journal on Computer Science and Information Systems 15, no. 2 (2020). https://doi.org/10.33965/ijcsis_2020_v15i2_06